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JP Morgan says that while in the current environment, uncertainty is high, war in Israel is unlikely to disrupt oil supplies.

The ‘but’ is:

  • “There has been no immediate impact on current global oil production … supply could be disrupted if the U.S. were strictly to enforce restrictions on Iranian oil exports or if disruptions spread to the Strait of Hormuz”
  • “Near-term supply-demand balance and the resulting change in oil inventories remain the main fundamental drivers of our oil price forecast, not geopolitics”

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Brent update:

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